2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that nailed six golf majors

The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing continues this week when the world’s best golfers take on the Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Two-time FedExCup champion – and 2018 API winner – Rory McIlroy leads the star-studded 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational field when play begins Thursday morning. Englishman Tyrrell Hatton returns to defend his 2020 title, which extended the streak of European winners at Bay Hill to five. Hatton has won twice on the European Tour in the last five months and has rocketed up to fifth in the world since his 2020 API victory.

McIlroy is the is the 9-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Long-hitting Bryson DeChambeau and talented Norwegian star Viktor Hovland are both at 12-1, with Hatton at 16-1 on the PGA odds board. Before making any 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up almost $11,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

Last month at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, McClure nailed Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets. McClure was also all over Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in his best bets at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past few months. 

After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets in that tournament. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure’s best bets included Garcia winning outright. 

He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff. In all, the advanced computer model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021: Jordan Spieth, who has won 11 times on the PGA Tour and is one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Spieth is making his Bay Hill debut, and is coming off a torrid stretch of golf that saw him contend on Sunday in three straight events.

Spieth led the Waste Management Phoenix Open late, until a Sunday 72 saw him finish fourth at TPC Scottsdale. The next week on the Monterey Peninsula, Spieth again was around the lead before finishing third at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. And two straight 68s to open the Genesis Invitational had Spieth in contention for a third straight week before finishing 15th at Riviera. But Spieth’s unfamiliarity at Bay Hill might prove costly, and there are far better values in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021 field.

Another surprise: Patrick Reed, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Reed has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The 11th-ranked player in the world, Reed is coming off a strong week at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession — where he contended all weekend en route to finishing ninth. That effort was Reed’s first after capturing the Farmers Insurance Open by five strokes in January.

Reed has made five appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with two top-20s that includes a seventh-place finish in 2018. Only one player on the PGA Tour makes more birdies per round this season than Reed’s 5.12, a scoring binge that is impressive by any measure. Reed also is first on tour with a 1.644 putting average and is second in strokes gained: putting, an ability that will be valuable on the tricky Bay Hill greens. Those impressive stats, plus his long odds, make Reed a strong value pick for your 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets. 

How to make 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

Also, the model is targeting five other golfers with odds of 20-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up almost $11,000 since the restart, and find out. 

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds (via William Hill)

Rory McIlroy 9-1
Bryson DeChambeau 12-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Tyrrell Hatton 12-1
Patrick Reed 20-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 25-1
Jordan Spited 28-1
Paul Casey 28-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Louis Oosthuizen 35-1
Jason Day 35-1
Francesco Molinari 35-1
Billy Horschel 40-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Marc Leishman 40-1
Sam Burns 45-1
Harris English 45-1
Will Zalatoris 45-1
Max Homa 50-1
Jason Kokrak 50-1
Cameron Tringale 60-1
Kevin Na 60-1
Justin Rose 60-1
Branden Grace 66-1
Rickie Fowler 66-1
Kevin Kisner 70-1
Cameron Davis 70-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 70-1
Adam Hadwin 80-1
Robert Macintyre 80-1
Victor Perez 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Lanto Griffin 90-1
Shane Lowry 100-1
Maverick McNealy 100-1
Chris Kirk 100-1
J.T. Poston 100-1
Matt Jones 100-1
Matt Wallace 100-1
Henrik Stenson 100-1
Ian Poulter 100-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1
Lee Westwood 100-1
Si-Woo Kim 100-1

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