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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp will allow movie theaters in his state to reopen starting April 27, but it’s not looking like that many will.
Large cinema companies have furloughed or laid off almost all employees and locations across the U.S. have been shutdown since mid-March due to the coronavirus pandemic. It would be difficult for them to staff, train and open in the next week, Wold said.
And many wouldn’t want to, anyway.
Kemp has not announced what physical distancing protocols will need to be put in place in order for theaters to reopen. Those protocols, when they are announced, will likely restrict attendance.
Another hurdle is the movie calendar. With so many film releases postponed, it’s unclear how theaters would coax moviegoers to turn out.
“The initial box office revenues would be generated by smaller, independent exhibitors,” Wold wrote. “Given that investors are likely to extrapolate any results out of Georgia against prior nationwide results, this could prove disappointing.”
Then there is the question of liability. Theater owners are still exploring what legal issues they could face if moviegoers contract Covid-19 while at the theater. It’s currently unclear if the burden would fall on the theater company or the state.
Representatives for AMC, Regal Cinemas and Marcus Theatres did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. The National Association of Theatre Owners also wasn’t immediately available.
Last week, Cinemark, the third-largest movie theater chain in the U.S., said it hopes to reopen at least some of its doors to the public in July, but that’s just one of several possible scenarios the company has plotted out based on state social distancing regulations.
The company reiterated that plan in an email to CNBC Tuesday.
CEO Mark Zoradi had said the company would stagger seating arrangements to allow some space between moviegoers, but may have to shorten hours. Cinemark laid off its 17,500 domestic hourly employees in March, but hopes to begin rehiring in June so that it can train new workers before opening to the public.
Its planned July reopening was based on the current studio release schedule, which sees Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi thriller “Tenet” arriving in theaters on July 17 and Disney’s “Mulan” arriving on July 24.
Otherwise, theaters could play so-called library movies, or films that have already previously been released in cinemas, during the period where there isn’t a new movie release. Companies like Fatham Events have hosted these kinds of releases, bringing back movies like “Gone With the Wind,” “Batman” and “Star Wars” to the big screen. However, if there are still concerns about potentially contracting coronavirus, moviegoers may not want to stray from their homes to see a film they could already watch from home.
In March, AMC, the largest movie theater chain in the U.S., had said it expected to be shut down for six to 12 weeks, which would place its reopening between May and mid-June. At that time, CEO Adam Aron told CNBC that the company was still exploring what its strategy would be once it is able to reopen. He cited temperature-reading machines as well as stricter cleaning procedures as measures it could take.
More than 26,600 theater and corporate employees working for AMC have been furloughed or let go, including Aron.
“We remain comfortable with our modeled projections for a mid- to late-June restart for the domestic exhibition industry and believe that any expectations for more than meaningfully depressed results in 2020 are optimistic at this point — and investors should continue to focus on more normalized trends heading into 2021,” Wold said.
“We continue to project a 2020 domestic box office decline of [about] 40% compared to already depressed 2019 levels,” he added.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.